How Has the Kim Family Held on to Power So Long?
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“This question is fundamental. To understand where we are and where we might be heading, we have to understand where we’ve come from.” – Sokeel Park, LiNK CSO
The North Korean regime is the world’s worst dictatorship, an extreme remnant of 20th century authoritarianism that has stretched across eight decades and three generations of the ruling Kim family. The regime’s all-encompassing system of control constrains the North Korean people’s agency and potential, resulting in an enforced poverty which includes physiological, material, social, informational, and cultural deprivations.
It is not easy for dictators to maintain power for long. During the Kim family’s rule, the world has seen the rise and fall of dozens of other dictatorships. Through many periods of global change and internal instability, they’ve managed to maintain power not by sheer force or luck, but through an array of adaptive strategies. But when the media portrays Kim Jong Un as crazy or irrational, it undermines our understanding and approaches to try to undermine that dictatorship.
There is a formula to their approach, and if we can understand it, then we can counteract it.
The Four Ways Dictators Lose Power
Historically, the fall of dictators can be attributed to four factors. By looking at each of them, we can see how the ruling Kim family has strategically avoided these fates.
1. Military Defeat/International Intervention
An external country or force intervening and overthrowing a dictator through military defeat.
2. Elite Challenges
An internal challenge emerging from within the country’s top political or military circles, forcibly removing the current dictator by assasination or a coup d'état,
3. Popular Uprising
An internal challenge from below, where a mass movement forces a change in leadership. In some cases, parts of the elite may join the side of the masses.
4. Death in Office
The death of the current leader, opening up an opportunity for someone else to assume control and end the dictatorship or make significant changes.
Threat #1: Preventing Military Overthrow
To prevent an external power from overthrowing their dictatorship, the Kim family first needs a strong deterrent against military force. The vast majority of mainstream news coverage of North Korea focuses on one thing: nuclear weapons. Having nuclear weapons and being seen as potentially willing and able to use them is arguably the most effective way to deter a military intervention from the outside.
Second, the Kim family has strategically managed their relations with countries like the Soviet Union / Russia, China, the United States, and South Korea. They go back and forth between periods of warmer and colder relations, effectively balancing opportunities and risks to gain support while preventing too much external influence. It’s unlikely that the Kim family has ever really trusted any of these external powers, even those that are sometimes labelled as “allies”.
Threat #2: Preventing Elite Challenges
Historically, the position of dictator can be very tempting to others within the leadership’s orbit, from competing family members to senior politicians or military leaders. To prevent anyone from building too much power and becoming a threat, the ruling Kim family carefully manages elite politics, alternating between demoting, promoting, and purging top officials.
On top of that, cross-layered surveillance between different institutions also keeps potential challengers under surveillance and in check, and prevents any one person or group of people from launching a challenge for power.
Threat #3: Preventing Popular Uprisings
The next scenario that the regime must prevent is a popular uprising.
A common conception of North Korea is that if the people wanted to rise up and revolt, they would have, and so they must be brainwashed or bought into the regime’s ideologies. While the latter may be true to some degree, it's difficult to fully grasp the extent to which the government’s system of control deprives people of their agency and potential and prevents them from challenging dictatorial rule.
North Korea is the most closed country in the world. The regime has forcibly cut off North Koreans from the rest of humanity, which serves as the baseline for their control. This centers everything—social structure, daily life, resources, information—around the regime, and eliminates sources that could undermine or threaten their authoritarian rule.
Laying the Foundation: Kim Il Sung’s Half-Century in Power
Kim Il Sung was 33 years old when he was installed into power by the Soviet Union—very young in global politics at the time, when most leaders were in their 50s and 60s. This historical happenstance has ended up being a key factor in the longevity of the Kim family’s control.
From his rise to power in 1945 to his death in 1994 at the age of 82, Kim Il Sung had 49 years to mold North Korea’s politics and systems in his image. During this time, he laid the foundation for hereditary succession by:
- Centralizing power around this dictatorship.
- Building a cult of personality around himself and his direct lineage: propaganda and myth-making that legitimized the Kim family as the only North Koreans worthy to lead the country.
- Purging anyone who could have been an alternative leader.
When it came time for Kim Jong Il to assume power, and the Kim Jong Un after that, decades of preparation smoothened the transition.
Now, after three generations of the Kim family, it would be very difficult for anyone else, even among the upper elite, to try and take power. Even if someone did manage to depose the current dictator, they would have to contend with not just managing the power vacuum, but the ideological void left by decades of propaganda and mythmaking that surrounded the Kim family.
Without the legitimacy that had been set up by the Kims, a new leader would likely find it difficult to maintain power for long. This is something that North Korean elites understand, which further discourages any rival officials from challenging the current regime.
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The DMZ and North Korea
What Is the DMZ?
The Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) is a strip of land running 160 miles (250km) across the Korean Peninsula that serves as a buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea. It passes just 30 miles north of Seoul but is one of the most heavily guarded borders in the world. It divides the Korean Peninsula approximately in half roughly near the original border at 38°N (the 38th parallel), the line that divided North and South Korea at the end of World War II. The Demilitarized Zone incorporates territory on both sides of the cease-fire line as it existed at the end of the Korean War (1950-1953), and was created by pulling back the respective forces 1.2 miles along each side of the line.
The armistice that ended hostilities was signed here in 1953, but, as an official peace treaty was never signed, the two sides have officially been at war for over seven decades.
A Brief History of the DMZ
With Japan’s surrender to the Allies ending World War II in 1945, Korea gained its independence after 35 years of colonization by Japan. The United States and the Soviet Union agreed to a joint temporary occupation of the Korean Peninsula with the US administering the southern part and the USSR administering the northern part.
The zones were split at the 38th parallel, an arbitrary line on the map chosen because it divided the country roughly in half. The division and international administration was supposed to be temporary until Koreans were considered ready to govern by themselves, but with the onset of the Cold War and growing suspicion between the US and USSR the two sides failed to come to an agreement that could establish a unified Korean government and state.
Instead the Republic of Korea (ROK), supported by the United States, was established in 1948 in the south while the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, supported by the Soviet Union, was established soon after in the north, with both sides claiming sovereignty over the whole peninsula.
On June 25th, 1950, the new North Korean Army invaded across the 38th parallel in an attempt to quickly reunify the Korean peninsula by force. They nearly succeeded, but US-led international intervention changed the course of the war. The conflict devastated the Korean peninsula for three years and killed three million people. After the conflict reached a stalemate close to the 38th parallel, the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed on July 27th, 1953 between the United Nations Command, North Korea, and China to establish a ceasefire.
Each side agreed to move their troops back 2,000m (1.24 miles) from the front line to create a demilitarized zone, establishing a 2.5 mile wide buffer with established rules of conduct. The Military Demarcation Line (MDL) runs through the middle of the DMZ and indicates where the front was when the agreement was signed.
More than seven decades later, both sides still stand guard on either side of the DMZ, two large armies on constant alert for potential aggression from the other side. The arbitrary division that in 1945 everyone thought would be temporary has ended up with one of the most impermeable borders in human history.
The Security Status at the DMZ
The border between North and South Korea is one of the most heavily guarded stretches of land in the world. The DMZ, littered with scores of mines and barbed-wire fences, is almost impossible to cross, except at the Joint Security Area (JSA). The JSA is a special zone inside what is known as the "truce village" of Panmunjom, about 35 miles north of Seoul. Every year, when it is open to tourists, thousands of people visit the JSA for a chance to see North Korean soldiers standing at attention just dozens of feet away and to officially step into North Korean territory inside a United Nations Command administered conference room that straddles the military border.
A visit there feels like military theater, with stern warnings from the South Korean soldiers under United Nations Command not to make gestures at their counterparts. Since demarcation, the DMZ has had numerous incidents and incursions by both sides, although the North Korean government typically doesn’t acknowledge direct responsibility for any of these incidents.
Human Rights and Repression in North Korea
North Korea is one of the world's most repressive states. The government restricts all civil and political liberties for its citizens, including freedom of expression, assembly, association, and religion. It prohibits all organized political opposition, independent media, civil society, and trade unions. The government routinely uses arbitrary arrest and punishment, torture in custody, forced labor, and executions to maintain fear and control across the country. Beyond the DMZ, North Korea is a highly controlled country where human rights are routinely violated.
The international community has continued to press the North Korean government to expand its engagement with United Nations human rights mechanisms, including action on findings of the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI). The COI report shows that the country has committed crimes against humanity including extermination, murder, enslavement, imprisonment, rape, sexual violence, forced abortion, and other heinous crimes. The citizens of North Korea require a lot of help and support from the international community in order to attain a better life.
The North Korean people face a brutal and repressive government that isolates them from the world and denies their most basic human rights. But you can help to create change. At Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), we help North Korean refugees escape through a 3,000-mile secret rescue route and empower North Koreans who have reached freedom to be changemakers, advocates, and leaders on this issue.
You can help make a difference in the lives of North Korean citizens by learning more about our organization, raising funds, advocating for the people of North Korea, starting a rescue team, or making a donation today!
