How Has the Kim Family Held on to Power So Long?
The following content is adapted from North Korea 101, LiNK’s FREE online course that explains what's happening in North Korea beyond the headlines. Start learning today.
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“This question is fundamental. To understand where we are and where we might be heading, we have to understand where we’ve come from.” – Sokeel Park, LiNK CSO
The North Korean regime is the world’s worst dictatorship, an extreme remnant of 20th century authoritarianism that has stretched across eight decades and three generations of the ruling Kim family. The regime’s all-encompassing system of control constrains the North Korean people’s agency and potential, resulting in an enforced poverty which includes physiological, material, social, informational, and cultural deprivations.
It is not easy for dictators to maintain power for long. During the Kim family’s rule, the world has seen the rise and fall of dozens of other dictatorships. Through many periods of global change and internal instability, they’ve managed to maintain power not by sheer force or luck, but through an array of adaptive strategies. But when the media portrays Kim Jong Un as crazy or irrational, it undermines our understanding and approaches to try to undermine that dictatorship.
There is a formula to their approach, and if we can understand it, then we can counteract it.
The Four Ways Dictators Lose Power
Historically, the fall of dictators can be attributed to four factors. By looking at each of them, we can see how the ruling Kim family has strategically avoided these fates.
1. Military Defeat/International Intervention
An external country or force intervening and overthrowing a dictator through military defeat.
2. Elite Challenges
An internal challenge emerging from within the country’s top political or military circles, forcibly removing the current dictator by assasination or a coup d'état,
3. Popular Uprising
An internal challenge from below, where a mass movement forces a change in leadership. In some cases, parts of the elite may join the side of the masses.
4. Death in Office
The death of the current leader, opening up an opportunity for someone else to assume control and end the dictatorship or make significant changes.
Threat #1: Preventing Military Overthrow
To prevent an external power from overthrowing their dictatorship, the Kim family first needs a strong deterrent against military force. The vast majority of mainstream news coverage of North Korea focuses on one thing: nuclear weapons. Having nuclear weapons and being seen as potentially willing and able to use them is arguably the most effective way to deter a military intervention from the outside.
Second, the Kim family has strategically managed their relations with countries like the Soviet Union / Russia, China, the United States, and South Korea. They go back and forth between periods of warmer and colder relations, effectively balancing opportunities and risks to gain support while preventing too much external influence. It’s unlikely that the Kim family has ever really trusted any of these external powers, even those that are sometimes labelled as “allies”.
Threat #2: Preventing Elite Challenges
Historically, the position of dictator can be very tempting to others within the leadership’s orbit, from competing family members to senior politicians or military leaders. To prevent anyone from building too much power and becoming a threat, the ruling Kim family carefully manages elite politics, alternating between demoting, promoting, and purging top officials.
On top of that, cross-layered surveillance between different institutions also keeps potential challengers under surveillance and in check, and prevents any one person or group of people from launching a challenge for power.
Threat #3: Preventing Popular Uprisings
The next scenario that the regime must prevent is a popular uprising.
A common conception of North Korea is that if the people wanted to rise up and revolt, they would have, and so they must be brainwashed or bought into the regime’s ideologies. While the latter may be true to some degree, it's difficult to fully grasp the extent to which the government’s system of control deprives people of their agency and potential and prevents them from challenging dictatorial rule.
North Korea is the most closed country in the world. The regime has forcibly cut off North Koreans from the rest of humanity, which serves as the baseline for their control. This centers everything—social structure, daily life, resources, information—around the regime, and eliminates sources that could undermine or threaten their authoritarian rule.
Laying the Foundation: Kim Il Sung’s Half-Century in Power
Kim Il Sung was 33 years old when he was installed into power by the Soviet Union—very young in global politics at the time, when most leaders were in their 50s and 60s. This historical happenstance has ended up being a key factor in the longevity of the Kim family’s control.
From his rise to power in 1945 to his death in 1994 at the age of 82, Kim Il Sung had 49 years to mold North Korea’s politics and systems in his image. During this time, he laid the foundation for hereditary succession by:
- Centralizing power around this dictatorship.
- Building a cult of personality around himself and his direct lineage: propaganda and myth-making that legitimized the Kim family as the only North Koreans worthy to lead the country.
- Purging anyone who could have been an alternative leader.
When it came time for Kim Jong Il to assume power, and the Kim Jong Un after that, decades of preparation smoothened the transition.
Now, after three generations of the Kim family, it would be very difficult for anyone else, even among the upper elite, to try and take power. Even if someone did manage to depose the current dictator, they would have to contend with not just managing the power vacuum, but the ideological void left by decades of propaganda and mythmaking that surrounded the Kim family.
Without the legitimacy that had been set up by the Kims, a new leader would likely find it difficult to maintain power for long. This is something that North Korean elites understand, which further discourages any rival officials from challenging the current regime.
Keep Learning with NK 101: Understanding the Country Through Its People
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5 Must-Read Books about North Korea
Finding new information about North Korea can be hard, especially when news outlets focus almost entirely on things like politics, nuclear weapons, and Kim Jong-un’s latest haircut.The good news is that there are amazing books that go beyond the surface of North Korea and reveal the in-depth stories and lives of the North Korean people.
Here are 5 books we highly recommend to learn more about North Korea!
Under The Same Sky by Joseph Kim
A story of survival, escape, and a new life in America
Now an internationally renowned advocate, Joseph Kim shares his journey of survival, escape, and building a new life in the United States. When Joseph was young, the Great Famine tore his family apart. After his father starved to death, his mother and sister went to find food in China, leaving Joseph to fend for himself in the streets. To survive, he crossed into China, where he lived in hiding before connecting with LiNK’s network and resettling in the U.S. as a refugee. Check out the Reddit AMA we did with Joseph Kim here!
Aquariums of Pyongyang by Kang Chol-Hwan and Pierre Ragoulot
A first-hand account of growing-up in a North Korean Political Prison Camp
Kang Chol-Hwan is a survivor. He was sent to the infamous Yodok political prison camp at just nine years old. He spent 10 years in the camp and experienced the brutality of the North Korean regime firsthand. After being released, he was finally able to escape to South Korea. Today, he advocates for human rights in North Korea. Read more about political prison camps in North Korea here.
Nothing to Envy by Barbara Demick
The stories of 6 people who survived the North Korean famine
Award-winning journalist Barbara Demick dives deep into the lives of 6 North Koreans during the North Korean famine. Through these stories you’ll see what life is like inside the country and the incredible resiliency of the North Korean people. This book is a staff favorite! Read about the challenges the North Korean people face..
North Korea Confidential By Daniel Tudor and James Pearson
A great summary of life in North Korea today
This book will get you caught up on North Korea! Known as the “hermit kingdom,” North Korea is a mystery to many. But beyond the political headlines is a North Korea that is rapidly changing. Tudor and Pearson explore what life is like in North Korea today, the one where citizens carry USBs filled with South Korean dramas and k-pop and run their own businesses in underground markets. Read about modern North Korea and how the country is changing here.
The Great Successor By Anna Fifield
A compelling portrait of the North Korean regime and Kim Jong Un
We like to focus on the people of North Korea, not the regime. But this book by the talented journalist Anna Fifield (and friend of LiNK’s) is a must-read. She explores the life of Kim Jong Un and interviews people who have actually met him. Fifield gives a behind-the-scenes look into the rise of Kim Jong Un while at the same time highlighting the incredible changes happening inside the country that are pressuring the regime to adapt and change.
