How Has the Kim Family Held on to Power So Long?
The following content is adapted from North Korea 101, LiNK’s FREE online course that explains what's happening in North Korea beyond the headlines. Start learning today.
Sign up for NK 101
“This question is fundamental. To understand where we are and where we might be heading, we have to understand where we’ve come from.” – Sokeel Park, LiNK CSO
The North Korean regime is the world’s worst dictatorship, an extreme remnant of 20th century authoritarianism that has stretched across eight decades and three generations of the ruling Kim family. The regime’s all-encompassing system of control constrains the North Korean people’s agency and potential, resulting in an enforced poverty which includes physiological, material, social, informational, and cultural deprivations.
It is not easy for dictators to maintain power for long. During the Kim family’s rule, the world has seen the rise and fall of dozens of other dictatorships. Through many periods of global change and internal instability, they’ve managed to maintain power not by sheer force or luck, but through an array of adaptive strategies. But when the media portrays Kim Jong Un as crazy or irrational, it undermines our understanding and approaches to try to undermine that dictatorship.
There is a formula to their approach, and if we can understand it, then we can counteract it.
The Four Ways Dictators Lose Power
Historically, the fall of dictators can be attributed to four factors. By looking at each of them, we can see how the ruling Kim family has strategically avoided these fates.
1. Military Defeat/International Intervention
An external country or force intervening and overthrowing a dictator through military defeat.
2. Elite Challenges
An internal challenge emerging from within the country’s top political or military circles, forcibly removing the current dictator by assasination or a coup d'état,
3. Popular Uprising
An internal challenge from below, where a mass movement forces a change in leadership. In some cases, parts of the elite may join the side of the masses.
4. Death in Office
The death of the current leader, opening up an opportunity for someone else to assume control and end the dictatorship or make significant changes.
Threat #1: Preventing Military Overthrow
To prevent an external power from overthrowing their dictatorship, the Kim family first needs a strong deterrent against military force. The vast majority of mainstream news coverage of North Korea focuses on one thing: nuclear weapons. Having nuclear weapons and being seen as potentially willing and able to use them is arguably the most effective way to deter a military intervention from the outside.
Second, the Kim family has strategically managed their relations with countries like the Soviet Union / Russia, China, the United States, and South Korea. They go back and forth between periods of warmer and colder relations, effectively balancing opportunities and risks to gain support while preventing too much external influence. It’s unlikely that the Kim family has ever really trusted any of these external powers, even those that are sometimes labelled as “allies”.
Threat #2: Preventing Elite Challenges
Historically, the position of dictator can be very tempting to others within the leadership’s orbit, from competing family members to senior politicians or military leaders. To prevent anyone from building too much power and becoming a threat, the ruling Kim family carefully manages elite politics, alternating between demoting, promoting, and purging top officials.
On top of that, cross-layered surveillance between different institutions also keeps potential challengers under surveillance and in check, and prevents any one person or group of people from launching a challenge for power.
Threat #3: Preventing Popular Uprisings
The next scenario that the regime must prevent is a popular uprising.
A common conception of North Korea is that if the people wanted to rise up and revolt, they would have, and so they must be brainwashed or bought into the regime’s ideologies. While the latter may be true to some degree, it's difficult to fully grasp the extent to which the government’s system of control deprives people of their agency and potential and prevents them from challenging dictatorial rule.
North Korea is the most closed country in the world. The regime has forcibly cut off North Koreans from the rest of humanity, which serves as the baseline for their control. This centers everything—social structure, daily life, resources, information—around the regime, and eliminates sources that could undermine or threaten their authoritarian rule.
Laying the Foundation: Kim Il Sung’s Half-Century in Power
Kim Il Sung was 33 years old when he was installed into power by the Soviet Union—very young in global politics at the time, when most leaders were in their 50s and 60s. This historical happenstance has ended up being a key factor in the longevity of the Kim family’s control.
From his rise to power in 1945 to his death in 1994 at the age of 82, Kim Il Sung had 49 years to mold North Korea’s politics and systems in his image. During this time, he laid the foundation for hereditary succession by:
- Centralizing power around this dictatorship.
- Building a cult of personality around himself and his direct lineage: propaganda and myth-making that legitimized the Kim family as the only North Koreans worthy to lead the country.
- Purging anyone who could have been an alternative leader.
When it came time for Kim Jong Il to assume power, and the Kim Jong Un after that, decades of preparation smoothened the transition.
Now, after three generations of the Kim family, it would be very difficult for anyone else, even among the upper elite, to try and take power. Even if someone did manage to depose the current dictator, they would have to contend with not just managing the power vacuum, but the ideological void left by decades of propaganda and mythmaking that surrounded the Kim family.
Without the legitimacy that had been set up by the Kims, a new leader would likely find it difficult to maintain power for long. This is something that North Korean elites understand, which further discourages any rival officials from challenging the current regime.
Keep Learning with NK 101: Understanding the Country Through Its People
Through in-depth interviews with North Koreans who have escaped and insight from issue experts, this course will expand your understanding of the current state of North Korea. We’ll dive deeper into what’s happening in North Korea beyond the headlines, hone your ability to discern these key trends, and help you impress your friends with your expertise on the issue.
Access hours of exclusive, free content. Sign up for NK 101.
North Korean Soldiers in Russia-Ukraine War
Insights from LiNK’s Chief Strategy Officer, Sokeel Park
Since the end of last year, there have been multiple credible reports of a significant number of North Korean troops being killed and wounded while fighting against Ukrainian forces in Kursk. More recently, there have been media interviews with two North Korean POWs' being held in Ukraine and reports of additional reinforcements being sent to Russia. Kursk is a Russian region bordering Ukraine where Ukrainian forces have held territory since last summer, aiming to change the dynamics of the war and hold a bargaining chip for peace negotiations.
These North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia by Kim Jong Un last autumn as part of his support for Putin’s war. In return, Russia is thought to be providing North Korea with oil, military technology, food and cash.
Kim Jong Un’s Goals and How The World Can Respond
Since the first reports of this unprecedented deployment of over 10,000 North Korean troops to a foreign war we have been in discussions with the Ukrainian Embassy in Seoul, the US government, and Ukrainian civil society representatives regarding policy recommendations and potential responses.
Whilst it is clear that Kim Jong Un does not care about the tragic loss of life of young North Korean men in the trenches of Kursk, he does care about maintaining control over North Korean people’s information environment.
At every opportunity we will continue to encourage relevant governments to increase information access initiatives with strategic messaging targeting North Korean troops in Russia, overseas North Koreans, and audiences inside North Korea. The objectives are to decrease North Korean soldiers’ willingness to fight for Putin, encourage surrender and defection, prevent avoidable loss of life, and increase political costs for Kim Jong Un to continue his military support for Putin.
Treatment of North Korean POWs
We also call on the media to protect the rights, dignity and identity security of any captured North Korean POWs who may be made available for interviews. The North Korean military does not educate its soldiers on its rights as POWs, and information released through such interviews may endanger the soldiers themselves and family members back in North Korea. The Geneva Convention also protects POWs against being subject to public curiosity, meaning interviews must be truly voluntary with fully informed consent, and not exploit the POWs status or conditions. We have discussed these issues directly with relevant journalists, but it is regrettable that in the race to be first some media’s ethical standards have dropped.
The Future of North Korea
The North Korean government’s threats to international security are real, and they dominate the news headlines regarding the country. But we should remember that the North Korean soldiers dying on the battlefield come from the same communities as North Koreans that have come to freedom with us, are now enthusiastically learning English in Seoul, advocating for North Korean human rights at the UN, and working with us to challenge the North Korean government’s control over information.
It will only be when North Korea opens up and all North Korean people gain their basic freedoms that North Korea can have leadership that values North Korean lives. When that happens all of these issues, including the North Korean government’s threats to international security, can be resolved. Thank you for your ongoing support for this vision.
You can learn about human rights violations in the North Korean military in this report by our colleagues at NKDB. Download the full report at the bottom of the page.
